About US Digital Media Newspaper Media Kits

Boeing Forecasts $16 Trillion Commercial Market through 2038

The newest CMO shows growing passenger volumes and increasing airplane retirements will drive the need for 44,040 new jets...

timg (16)

CANNEWS - Boeing today unveiled its 2019 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), a longer-term forecast that delves deeper into the market for commercial airplanes and services. The newest CMO shows growing passenger volumes and increasing airplane retirements will drive the need for 44,040 new jets, valued at $6.8 trillion over the next two decades and up 3 percent from a year ago. The global commercial airplane fleet will also sustain the need for aviation services valued at $9.1 trillion, leading to a total commercial market opportunity of $16 trillion through 2038.

"Time and again, commercial aviation has shown itself to be extremely resilient. Notwithstanding some recent moderation in passenger and cargo traffic growth, all indications are pointing to our industry sustaining its unprecedented streak of profitable expansion. In fact, we see a market that is broader, deeper and more balanced than we have seen in the past," said Boeing Commercial Marketing Vice President Randy Tinseth. "The healthy market fundamentals will fuel a doubling of the commercial fleet over the next two decades and a massive ecosystem of lifecycle solutions to maintain and support it."

Of the new airplane deliveries, forecasters say 44 percent will go toward replacing aging aircraft while the rest will accommodate traffic growth. Together, the new jets support an industry where passenger traffic will grow an average 4.6 percent and cargo traffic will grow an average 4.2 percent. Factoring in the new airplanes and the jets that would remain in service, the global commercial fleet is expected to reach 50,660 airplanes by 2038. This is the first time the projected fleet has crested the 50,000 mark.

The biggest airplane segment remains single-aisles such as the 737 MAX, as operators are projected to demand 32,420 new airplanes. This $3.8 trillion market is driven in large part by the continued strength of low-cost carriers, healthy replacement demand and continuing growth in Asia Pacific.

In the widebody segment, Boeing forecasts demand for 8,340 new passenger airplanes valued at more than $2.6 trillion over the next twenty years. Widebody demand is spearheaded in part by a significant wave of older airplanes that will need to be replaced beginning in a few years. Bolstering the demand for larger aircraft, operators are expected to need 1,040 new large production freighters over the forecast period.

New Airplane Deliveries through 2038 by size

 

Airplane type

Seats

Total deliveries

Market value

Regional jets

90 and below

2,240

$105 billion

Single-aisle

90 and above

32,420

$3,775 billion

Widebody

 

8,340

$2,650 billion

Freighter widebody

---------

1,040

$300 billion

Total

---------

44,040

$6,800 billion

The global airplane fleet will continue to generate significant demand for aviation services, including supply chain support (parts and parts logistics), maintenance and engineering services, aircraft modifications and airline operations. Over the next 20 years, Boeing forecasts a $9.1 trillion market for commercial aviation services with annual growth of 4.2 percent.

"This is a very dynamic and exciting marketplace, one that is driven by new technology and a relentless drive for greater efficiency, reliability and safety," said Tinseth. "On the technology front, we see operators using drones to inspect airplanes, and manufacturers delving into data analytics for insights to improve airplane maintenance and performance. Above all, operators are looking to providers to offer solutions that help them serve their customers more efficiently and reliably.

Major categories in the services forecast include the $2.4 trillion market for maintenance and engineering, which covers tasks required to maintain or restore the airworthiness of an aircraft and its systems, components and structures. Another major category is the $1.1 trillion market for flight operations, which covers services associated with the flight deck, cabin services, crew training and management and airplane operations.

Commercial Aviation Services through 2038 by service category

 

Service category

Market value

Corporate & External

$155 billion

Marketing & Planning

$545 billion

Flight Operations

$1,175 billion

Maintenance & Engineering

$2,400 billion

Ground & Cargo Operations

$4,825 billion

The Asia Pacific region, which includes China, will continue to lead the way in future growth, accounting for 40 percent of total airplane deliveries and 38 percent of total services value. North America and Europe round out the top three regions for future growth.

5b4

Commercial market through 2038 by region

 

 

 

Region

Airplane deliveries

 Services market

Asia Pacific

17,390

$3,480 billion

North America

9,130

$1,980 billion

Europe

8,990

$1,865 billion

Middle East

3,130

$790 billion

Latin America

2,960

$500 billion

Russia/C.I.S.

1,280

$270 billion

Africa

1,160

$215 billion

Total

44,040

$9,100 billion

Around the world, the growing commercial fleet will require a larger supply of pilots, technicians and crews. Boeing's 2019 Pilot and Technician Outlook forecasts that the civil aviation industry will need nearly 2.5 million new aviation personnel between now and 2038.

The Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) is the longest-running jet forecast and is regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry. The CMO and other Boeing market forecasts can be found at https://www.boeing.com/comm 2da0 ercial/market/.

Editor:王兰

+ NEWS FOCUS
  • Boeing

User Login

User registration

User Name:
P a s s w o r d:
Confirm Password:
E m a i l :
Verification Code:
Change one?
0